Ukraine talks: US calls day one "very productive," Lavrov rules out a ceasefire

The first trilateral talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine since February ended their opening session in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday after about four hours, with Kyiv and Moscow saying little. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who did not attend, called the day "very productive," the BBC reported. The delegations meet again Wednesday. The BBC notes that expectations for a breakthrough are low.

What was said, and by whom

At the start of the session, Jared Kushner told delegates the US had "narrowed the gaps" between the sides, without giving details, according to the BBC. Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff also met Ukrainian, European and NATO officials on the sidelines. Kushner had said a day earlier that Abu Dhabi could at most "build momentum toward the next phase of negotiations," a line we covered in Monday night's report.

The one concrete public statement came from the Russian side. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday that a ceasefire would only let Kyiv regroup and that "we will not agree to it," per the BBC. A ceasefire along the current front line is the step Kyiv and its European backers have asked for first. CNBC quotes William Courtney, a former US ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia now at RAND, saying there are "no signs thus far" that the Kremlin is serious about a ceasefire, and that the Trump administration no longer seems to be pushing one. Those are his views, not an official finding.

Where the positions stand

Nothing public has moved on Donetsk. The BBC says Moscow wants Ukraine to give up the part of the region it still holds, while Kyiv wants to freeze the line. A senior US official said before the talks that both sides had shown "a little bit of flexibility, privately." A senior Ukrainian official told Reuters, as relayed by CNBC, that any territory discussion belongs to national leaders and must come with security guarantees. We have no independent confirmation of either side's private position.

Europe's seat at the table is also unsettled. The US official told the BBC that Moscow has "a bad taste in their mouth with the Europeans," even as Rubio said in Paris that Europeans "are a part of solving this problem for the long term." OilPrice.com, summarizing analysts, argues that Russia's demands on the Donbas, Washington's push for a wider European security deal and the approach of winter point to a breakthrough more likely in 2027 than this week. That is analysis, not a fact about the talks.

What it means for markets

We checked whether the talks are moving prices. The figures say mostly no: the week's oil move is an Iran story (see our oil report). Quotes below were read around 10 a.m. ET Tuesday and compared with Monday's close, our arithmetic.

Oil. Russia is a large exporter, so a real settlement could eventually loosen sanctions and add supply, but nothing in Tuesday's reporting points to that soon. Gold's drop followed Tuesday's inflation data, not the talks. Shipping and insurance. Black Sea and Baltic war-risk costs depend on whether fighting and energy strikes continue, and Lavrov's rejection of a truce keeps that risk in place. BBC video headlines point to continued Russian strikes on Ukraine's power network, which we have not independently confirmed. Airlines and airspace. Russian airspace restrictions are unchanged by anything reported so far, and JETS is flat on the day. Defense stocks. ITA is up only 0.6%, after a 3.9% jump on Monday, so there is no sign of traders pricing a deal or a collapse in talks. US consumers. Any pressure on gasoline this week is coming from Iran headlines and Brent, not Abu Dhabi.

What to watch Wednesday: whether the second session produces any joint statement, whether Europeans are formally added to the format, and whether Lavrov's no-ceasefire position changes. More: this morning's War Room brief, crude oil chart, War Room.

Sources: BBC News, CNBC, OilPrice.com, Yahoo Finance market data. Some data may be delayed. This is market information, not investment advice.