War Room brief: Brent slips under $91 as Trump says the Iran war ends "fairly soon" and Ukraine talks open

Iran and the United States

President Trump said Monday that the war with Iran could end "fairly soon" and that Tehran was "talking very politely" with Washington, after meeting Qatar's prime minister, CNBC reported. He called Iran "militarily effectively over," described new U.S. strikes as "quite unlikely," and also said the U.S. remains "locked and loaded." Trump said Gulf states prefer the status quo of the naval blockade and the new "Operation Iron Gate" task force against Iranian land routes. CNBC, citing Reuters, says Iran sent a two-day proposal through Qatari mediators asking for sanctions relief and a new shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz, and that Washington was reviewing it. Iranian officials dispute that talks are under way; Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran\'s Supreme National Security Council, reportedly accused Washington of "manufacturing fake news about imaginary talks." OilPrice.com notes that a report of a 3.67% enrichment deal came from unnamed sources via Al Arabiya, that neither side has confirmed it, and that Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Tehran\'s demands "outrageous" on Sunday. So there is no deal, only softer language from one side.

Headlines from WSJ, as carried by Reuters and AP, say U.S. aircraft have been moved out of two British bases because of an Iran threat. We saw the headlines only and cannot say what the threat is. In Washington, CNBC reports Rep. Thomas Massie introduced eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday, including waging war against the limits set by Congress. It forces a House vote or a referral within two legislative days; CNBC notes Democrats won both chambers in last week\'s midterms. Watch today: any White House reply to Iran\'s proposal and the House handling of the Hegseth resolution.

France and Iran: the fridge hack

France formally blamed Iran for the October cyberattacks that overheated refrigerators in about 700 supermarkets, attributing them to Shahid Kaveh, which it says is linked to the Revolutionary Guard, per CNBC. Paris summoned Iran\'s ambassador on Tuesday, and Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said France is "not ruling anything out," including entry bans and asset freezes; it will propose new European sanctions. Iran had not responded when CNBC published. This is a French government finding, not independently confirmed.

Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the Gulf

Saudi Arabia\'s Energy Ministry said Monday that its East-West oil pipeline was targeted in the Medina region, causing a limited fire that crews put out, with no casualties or disruption to operations, according to OilPrice.com. The pipeline matters because it lets Saudi crude reach the Red Sea and skip Hormuz. Who attacked it was not stated in what we read. Headlines from Reuters and AP say the Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting Houthi missiles and drones, Saudi state media reported strikes on Sanaa, and the Houthis say at least 44 people were killed in an air strike near the Yemeni capital. We read only those headlines, so the casualty claim is unverified here. On the water, Saudi shipping group Bahri says it is sending tankers through Hormuz in coordination with the U.S. military, OilPrice.com reported, citing a Bloomberg-carried interview. Bahri says attacks on its vessels killed two crew members in the third quarter. Watch today: any Aramco or ministry statement on the pipeline and whether tanker attacks resume.

Russia and Ukraine

U.S., Russian and Ukrainian officials are meeting in Abu Dhabi for the first peace negotiations since February, CNBC reports. Trump said both sides show a "very strong inclination" to end the war. Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner lead for Washington; Russia named aide Vladimir Medinsky as chief negotiator. Reuters, via CNBC, quotes a U.S. official saying Moscow and Kyiv showed some flexibility on a possible territory exchange, while a senior Ukrainian official said any territory talk is for national leaders and must come with security guarantees. Russia still demands all of the eastern Donbas. Rubio said Sunday that "nothing\'s been finalized yet." A Reuters headline says Russia hit energy facilities in eight Ukrainian regions overnight, per the grid operator; we did not read the full report. Watch today: whether the sides publish any agenda or a ceasefire framework.

Markets box

Read from Yahoo Finance and the Chronicle board around 7 a.m. ET. ETF and VIX changes compare Monday\'s close with Friday\'s, and our arithmetic.

Feeds differ on contract month and timing: CNBC had Brent at $90.14 and WTI at $84.78 at 5:33 a.m. ET, so read moves rather than exact levels.

Oil. CNBC says Brent briefly fell below $90 for the first time since August, with recovering flows through Hormuz also easing supply fears. It started the year near $60 and reached as high as $130 in March and April. ING strategists said the market is unwinding geopolitical risk premium. The risk is the reverse: a failed proposal or a new strike would put that premium back quickly. Shipping and insurance. Tanker attacks and the coordinated Hormuz crossings keep war-risk costs elevated even as flows improve. Airlines and airspace. JETS has gained 5.2% since Friday on cheaper fuel; fuel is the cost, and Gulf airspace is the risk. Defense. ITA is up 3.9% in a session where diplomacy dominated, so it is not tracking the peace headlines one for one. Consumers. CNBC says the war has pushed up diesel, gasoline and jet fuel; a lower crude price reaches the pump with a lag, and today\'s CPI report (8:30 a.m. ET, forecast 0.3% month on month per our calendar) covers October, before this drop.

More: Sunday\'s brief, crude oil chart, gold chart, War Room, markets.

Sources: CNBC (oil), CNBC (Trump on Iran), CNBC (France), CNBC (Ukraine talks), CNBC (Hegseth), OilPrice.com (pipeline), OilPrice.com (Bahri), Reuters, AP, FT and WSJ headlines (not read in full), Yahoo Finance, Chronicle markets board. Claims are attributed to the parties that made them. This is market information, not investment advice.