Week ahead for futures traders: yields above 5%, a quieter calendar, and the road to the October jobs report

Traders head into the week of September 21 digesting the Federal Reserve's quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4% and a projection for one more increase this year. The U.S. data calendar is light for the next few days, which puts more weight on rates and on the heavier releases arriving at the turn of the month.

Where things stand

• Treasury yields: the 10-year ended Friday at 5.01% and the 2-year at 4.76%, up from 4.96% and 4.63% a week earlier (U.S. Treasury data). A 10-year yield above 5% is a level many equity and rates traders watch closely.
• Fed path: officials' median projection puts the funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026, implying one more hike, with rates easing in later years.
• Crypto: Bitcoin traded around $81,500 on Saturday, up about 7% since Fed day on Coinbase data. More on crypto.

Live index, energy, metals and rates prices are on our futures page and markets board.

The calendar

Calendar data via TradingView's economic calendar. Dates and forecasts can change.

What could move futures

• Stock index futures (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Russell 2000): sensitive to the 10-year yield; a push higher in yields has tended to weigh on growth and tech-heavy indexes.
• Treasury futures: the 2-year leads on Fed expectations. Strong data before the jobs report would reinforce the case for another hike.
• Energy and metals: geopolitical headlines around Middle East energy supplies remain a swing factor for crude oil.

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury; Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026; Coinbase; TradingView economic calendar. This is market information, not trading advice.