Musk spent $474 million on the midterms and Texas flipped anyway: what it puts at risk

Elon Musk's companies woke up Wednesday to a political map that no longer favors them at home. CNBC reported that Musk spent at least $474 million on the midterms, nearly half of it, $224 million, in Texas alone, according to its analysis of campaign finance records. Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton and Gov. Greg Abbott both lost. At 12:31 p.m. ET, Nasdaq.com showed Tesla at $387.89 (down 2.7%) and SpaceX at $137.72 (down 2.5%).

The money, and what it bought

Estimates of the total differ by outlet and method. The BBC, citing the Financial Times, said Musk's PAC gave $47 million to Paxton's campaign on top of $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund in September, and put his total at an estimated $446 million. CNBC's figure is $474 million. We use CNBC's as the higher count and note the BBC's.

CNBC's analysis of FEC filings also found Musk's America PAC spent nearly $87 million across 44 federal races. By Wednesday morning, Republicans it backed had lost 29 contests and won three, with 12 uncalled. More than $80 million, 93% of its spending, went to races Republicans lost. Musk joked on X: "Guess my election-interfering space lasers didn't work this time," as quoted by the BBC.

Where Texas touches the empire

According to CNBC, Tesla runs its largest US vehicle factory outside Austin, SpaceX launches from Starbase in South Texas, and Musk is pursuing more AI and chip-manufacturing investment there. Those operations depend on state decisions on electricity, water, environmental permits, infrastructure and tax incentives.

Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa campaigned against generous corporate subsidies, and against Musk himself. She has called for a moratorium on new data centers, an end to industry tax breaks, and a requirement that developers pay their full electricity costs, CNBC reported. See our report on her win.

The thing to keep straight: what she can and cannot do

The headline risk is bigger than the near-term legal power. CNBC notes Republicans still control the Texas Legislature, which limits any overhaul of state policy, and that Trump still controls federal agencies and holds veto power, which limits Democrats' ability to reverse policies that help Musk's defense-tech businesses. What changes is friction: a tougher approach to permitting and incentives, and a Democratic Congress that could investigate his federal contracts, his past leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency, and his companies' ties to Washington. CNBC said congressional scrutiny may slow SpaceX's fast-growing government contracts. That is a risk to timing, not a finding that anything has been blocked.

How the market is reading it

Tesla and SpaceX are lower, but the drop is modest next to the political headline, and it sits inside a broader split we tracked in our update on AI data center stocks: leveraged, Texas-heavy names fell hardest while large cloud companies rose. Our Musk empire explainer covers how the pieces fit together, and the pending Tesla-SpaceX merger process adds another reason investors will watch Washington. The BBC and CNBC both note this is not Musk's first spending miss: America PAC backed eight losing congressional candidates in 2024, and he spent over $20 million on a failed Wisconsin race last year, per CNBC.

What to watch

• Hinojosa's first moves after taking office in January, and whether the Legislature acts on data centers or incentives.
• Committee letters. Requests to SpaceX or federal agencies about contracts would be the first sign oversight is real.
• Uncalled races. Twelve America PAC races were still open per CNBC, so its final tally may change.

Sources: CNBC, BBC News (citing the Financial Times), Nasdaq.com quote data at 12:31 p.m. ET Nov. 4, Yahoo Finance chart data. Spending figures are as reported by those outlets and differ by method. This is market information, not investment advice.