Futures reopen Sunday with gold down 4.1%, Nasdaq 100 7.5% off its peak and 160 earnings reports due

Futures reopen at 6 PM ET Sunday into the busiest earnings week of the season and a Federal Reserve meeting. Every market figure below is as of Friday's close, Oct. 23; nothing here is a live quote. The week's story so far is a tech sell-off: CNBC reports that worries about how much companies are spending on artificial intelligence drove a Thursday sell-off that was the Nasdaq Composite's worst session since June.

Where the contracts closed

Contract	Fri, Oct. 23	Fri, Oct. 16	Week
E-mini S&P 500	7,659.75	7,704.25	-0.58%
E-mini Nasdaq 100	29,117.75	29,391.50	-0.93%
E-mini Dow	52,394	52,214	+0.34%
Gold	$4,007.90	$4,181.10	-4.14%
WTI crude	$103.27	$101.41	+1.83%
10-year T-note	106-05	105-14½	price up, yield down

Front-month settlements from Yahoo Finance; percentages are our arithmetic. The 10-year note price is shown in 32nds, rounded. We leave Brent out because vendors quote different contract months; our weekend brief has the Brent figure we have been using.

The weekly totals hide the path. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed to 30,007 on Wednesday, Oct. 21, then fell 2.9% to 29,142 on Thursday, so most of the week's tech gains were erased in one session. Gold's drop is the larger move: it fell from $4,150 on Wednesday to $4,007.90 on Friday, and ended the week more than $170 an ounce below the prior Friday.

Yields: lower on the week, higher on the weekend's worry

Maturity	Oct. 16	Oct. 23	Change
2-year	4.74%	4.69%	-5 bp
10-year	5.09%	5.00%	-9 bp
20-year	5.47%	5.37%	-10 bp

U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve.

The 10-year touched 5.15% on Monday and 5.13% on Wednesday before finishing the week at 5.00%, so the net move understates how much it swung. See the 10-year chart.

The Fed: a meeting with a hike behind it

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Oct. 27 and 28, with the decision on Wednesday. At its last meeting, on Sept. 16, the committee voted 12 to 0 to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point, to 3.75% to 4%. The Chronicle economic calendar lists a forecast of 3.875% for Wednesday, the midpoint of that range, which is consistent with no change. We did not find a primary-source estimate of the odds, so we do not quote one. A Kitco-listed FXEmpire headline on Sunday describes oil "fueling" rate-hike fears; we have not read that article and cite it only as a sign of what the market is discussing.

What traders will read is the wording, since the rate itself is expected to hold. With Brent above $116 on Friday's settlement (see our weekend brief), a statement that treats energy costs as a reason to keep tightening would hit Treasury futures and gold first.

The calendar (all times ET)

Day	Event	Previous	Forecast
Tue, Oct. 27	Coca-Cola and Boeing (before the open); Robinhood (after the close)
Wed, Oct. 28	Fed rate decision, 2:00 PM; Alphabet, Microsoft and Ford (after the close)	3.88%	3.875%
Thu, Oct. 29	Initial jobless claims; Caterpillar and Eli Lilly (before the open); Amazon and Intel (after the close)	194K	200K
Mon, Nov. 2	ISM manufacturing PMI	54.5

Economic figures from the Chronicle economic calendar; company days and times from CNBC's earnings playbook, which groups reports by day. Confirm each with the company's own release. The Fed decision on Wednesday is the main scheduled event; the rest of the week's data is thin, with the next jobs report on Nov. 6.

Earnings: about 160 S&P 500 reports

CNBC counts around 160 S&P 500 companies reporting this week. FactSet data cited by CNBC shows more than 120 have reported so far, with about 83% beating earnings estimates. Results have been strong; the question is what companies say about spending. Three setups matter most for index futures:

• Alphabet and Microsoft (Wednesday, after the close): they report after the cash close, hours after the Fed decision, so futures take the first reaction to both. LSEG expects Alphabet's revenue up about 25% and Microsoft's earnings up 14.3% with revenue up 16.8%. CNBC notes that Alphabet's stock fell last quarter even after a revenue beat, because the company raised its capital-spending forecast.
• Amazon and Intel (Thursday, after the close): LSEG expects roughly flat Amazon earnings per share on double-digit revenue growth, and Intel earnings up 70.3% on revenue up 20.5%. Our AWS story covers Amazon's capacity and capex comments.
• Caterpillar, Boeing and Eli Lilly (before the open): LSEG expects Caterpillar earnings up more than 43%. Boeing reports days after winning FAA approval for the 737 Max 10, per CNBC. LSEG expects Lilly's revenue to grow more than 28%.

With Nasdaq 100 futures 7.5% below their Oct. 6 closing peak by our chart, strong earnings alone have not been enough this month. The AI-spending guidance is the number to watch.

Headlines that could gap the open

Iran and the Gulf. Investing.com carried a headline Sunday saying President Trump stated there would be no strike on Iran that day, with a Qatari delegation in Tehran. The article was not readable by us, so treat it as a headline only. CNBC reported Sunday that Saudi Arabia said it intercepted missiles and drones from Iran-backed Houthis. Our War Room brief and Riyadh airport report have the confirmed detail. Oil futures trade through the weekend gap, so crude is the first market to react.

Midterms. Bloomberg's weekend program headline puts the elections nine days out, on Nov. 3.

What could move each market

• Equity index futures: Wednesday night's Alphabet and Microsoft reports, then Thursday's Amazon and Intel. See our futures page.
• Treasury futures: the Fed statement's wording on energy and inflation; the 10-year has swung between 4.96% and 5.15% in two weeks.
• Crude: Gulf headlines. See our crude chart.
• Gold: down 4.1% last week; the dollar and yields into the Fed. See the gold chart.

Bitcoin traded near $80,660 on Coinbase at 2:01 PM ET Sunday, up 0.6% over 24 hours. See today's crypto prices and last Sunday's preview.

Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury; Federal Reserve; Yahoo Finance; CNBC; Investing.com and Bloomberg (headlines only); Coinbase; Chronicle economic calendar. Consensus figures are forecasts and may change. This is market information, not trading advice.